Forecasting in the Agile world asks the difficult questions: How much of our product backlog will ready by a certain date? or By which date a specific feature will be ready?
Many teams attempt to forecast by measuring their Product Backlog in Story Points and dividing by the average number of story points achieved per Sprint. This is rarely effective.
Bell Curves and Measuring Badly
Red-Yellow-Green Status Reports and Other Models – How They Should and Shouldn’t Be Used
Resource Links:
- Effective Forecasting: Estimation in Kanban
- Forecasting for beginners
- Forecasting Reality: The Power of Truth-Telling
- Forecasting using data
- Forecasting Using Data – a list of tools
- How to Make Commitments for New Teams using Probabilistic Forecasting
- Monte Python Simulation: Misunderstanding Monte Carlo
- Story Point Velocity or Throughput Forecasting – Does it matter?
- Talking about Sizing and Forecasting in Scrum
FORECASTING TOOLS:
- Focused Objective – Collection of Forecasting Tools a gold mine
- Forecasting Using Data – Common Questions Answered [PDF warning!]
Books:
- Forecasting using Data – a free eBook – Troy Magennis
- When Will it be Done – Dan Vacanti
See Also:
Mark Levison has been helping Scrum teams and organizations with Agile, Scrum and Kanban style approaches since 2001. From certified scrum master training to custom Agile courses, he has helped well over 8,000 individuals, earning him respect and top rated reviews as one of the pioneers within the industry, as well as a raft of certifications from the ScrumAlliance. Mark has been a speaker at various Agile Conferences for more than 20 years, and is a published Scrum author with eBooks as well as articles on InfoQ.com, ScrumAlliance.org an AgileAlliance.org.
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